Southeast Storm Variance and Hurricane Season Disruptions
The Southeastern United States—home to major freight hubs like Atlanta and Memphis—faces annual disruption risk from Atlantic hurricanes, tropical storms, and severe thunderstorm complexes. These weather events create some of the highest transit time variance in the national freight network.
What This Chokepoint Is
Southeast storm variance encompasses the freight disruptions caused by tropical weather systems (hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions) and severe convective weather (tornado outbreaks, derechos, flash flooding) that affect the region from late spring through fall.
Unlike winter weather chokepoints that follow predictable seasonal patterns, Southeast storm events are episodic but can be catastrophic in scope. A single major hurricane can disrupt freight flows across multiple states for weeks.
Why This Chokepoint Exists
- Geographic Exposure: The Southeast sits in the primary path of Atlantic tropical systems. Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Carolinas are among the most hurricane-prone coastlines in the world.
- Hub Concentration:Atlanta is the primary distribution hub for the entire Southeast region. When Atlanta experiences disruption, freight to and from Florida, the Carolinas, and the Gulf states all suffer.
- Port Dependency: Savannah, Jacksonville, Tampa, and the Gulf ports handle significant import/export volume. Port closures halt container movement and back up intermodal freight throughout the system.
- Infrastructure Vulnerability: Flood-prone roads, aging bridges, and coastal rail lines are susceptible to storm damage that takes days or weeks to repair.
When This Chokepoint Fails
Storm-related disruptions occur in phases:
Pre-Storm Surge (2–5 Days Before)
Shippers rush freight out of threatened areas while consumers stockpile supplies. This creates a demand spike that strains carrier capacity before any weather impact occurs.
Storm Impact (1–3 Days)
Highways close, ports shut down, LTL terminals halt operations, and carriers pull drivers from affected areas. Freight movement stops in the impact zone.
Recovery Period (3–14 Days)
As roads reopen, accumulated freight creates severe congestion. Relief supplies and construction materials flood into affected areas, competing with normal commerce for capacity.
What Breaks Downstream
- Atlanta terminals become overwhelmed with redirected freight and recovery shipments
- Port closures at Savannah cascade back to Chicago and Midwest distribution as container schedules slip
- Truckload spot rates spike 30–100% in affected lanes as capacity becomes scarce
- Fuel shortages develop as refineries and pipelines in the Gulf region are affected
- Service standards become effectively meaningless for 1–3 weeks after major storms
Operational Considerations
Organizations with Southeast supply chain exposure typically maintain hurricane contingency plans:
- Pre-positioning safety stock at inland facilities (Nashville, Dallas, Memphis) before storm season
- Establishing carrier relationships in multiple regions to access alternate capacity
- Planning alternate port strategies (using Charleston or Norfolk when Savannah is threatened)
- Monitoring NOAA forecasts and pre-emptively adjusting shipment timing when storms are 5+ days out